Authors: Montt, M., Urdinez, F., Aguirre, I., & Matamala, G. (2024)
Abstract: In recent years, Chile has experienced a notable surge in cherry production. Factors such as the consistent growth in cultivated areas, the quantity exported, and the value of exports are evidence of this trend. Meanwhile, China has emerged as the primary destination for Chilean cherries in the international market, accounting for over 90% of the exports each season. This prominent preference is largely due to the high prices that Chinese consumers are willing to pay for cherries, especially during the Chinese New Year, owing to the significant cultural value of this fruit.
In this context, the Chilean producing sector holds optimistic expectations, anticipating that high prices will remain and that production will continue to expand in the short term. In fact, among certain specialized circles, there is a notion that Chile would not be able to meet Chinese demand even if the cherry cultivation area were to double.
However, some industry stakeholders express concern over the excessive market concentration and fear potential adverse behavior from China as retaliation for any bilateral crisis. Additionally, short-term difficulties are less related to cherry demand and more to supply, as signals begin to emerge in Chile indicating that agro-industrial development might be reaching its limits, primarily due to water stress and a lack of labor.